Why Ukraine matters to Russia
Ukraine borders Russia directly and holds most of Russia's traditional route to the Black Sea. Since Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea and the full scale invasion launched in February 2022, Russian forces have fought to secure a land corridor connecting Russia proper to Crimea across Ukraine's south, and to control as much of Ukraine's Black Sea and Sea of Azov coastline as possible. That coast gives Russia access to warm water ports year round, unlike its Arctic and Baltic fleets, which is a strategic asset Russian planners have prized since the imperial era.
Ukraine also sits on the Soviet era pipeline network that once carried the bulk of Russian gas to Europe. Gas continued to flow through Ukraine even during the first years of the war under a transit agreement between Gazprom and Ukraine's Naftogaz, but that five year deal expired at the end of 2024 and Ukraine declined to renew it, so Russian gas transit through Ukraine ended on 1 January 2025. Russia has since had to route more of its remaining gas exports to Europe through other pipelines or as liquefied natural gas, a shift that cost it a customer base built up over decades. Beyond pipelines and coastline, Moscow has also long treated Ukraine's political alignment as a marker of its own sphere of influence in the former Soviet space, which is why NATO's post 1991 eastward growth features so heavily in Russian objections to Ukraine's Western ties.
Why Ukraine matters to the US and Europe
Before the war, Ukraine was one of the world's largest grain exporters, ranked among the top producers of wheat and corn and the largest producer and exporter of sunflower oil, which is used in cooking and food processing worldwide. Much of that grain moved out through Black Sea ports, above all Odesa. When Russia blockaded those ports after the 2022 invasion, food prices rose sharply in import dependent countries across the Middle East and Africa, which is what made a war in Eastern Europe an immediate food security story elsewhere. A UN and Turkey brokered deal, the Black Sea Grain Initiative, was signed in Istanbul on 22 July 2022 and reopened a safe corridor out of Odesa, Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi, moving nearly 33 million tonnes of grain and food products to more than 40 countries before Russia let it lapse on 17 July 2023. Ukraine then built its own unilateral shipping corridor through its territorial waters, which by the end of 2023 had already moved 13 million tonnes on its own, and Ukrainian exports have since recovered close to pre war volumes.
For the US and its European allies, Ukraine's war has also become the clearest test in decades of whether a large country's borders can be redrawn by force, and of NATO's ability to support a partner without becoming a direct party to the fighting. Ukraine applied for NATO membership in 2022. The alliance's formal position, set out in the 2024 Washington Summit Declaration, is that Ukraine is on an "irreversible path to full Euro-Atlantic integration, including NATO membership" and that an invitation will follow "when Allies agree and conditions are met", which is a commitment in principle rather than a date. Accession has not moved forward while the war continues, and Western support has instead taken the form of arms, funding and sanctions on Russia rather than a mutual defense commitment.
The state of the war, as of September 2026
There is no general ceasefire and no signed peace agreement. The Council on Foreign Relations, in its conflict tracker updated on 1 September 2026, puts Russian forces in control of roughly 20% of Ukraine's internationally recognized territory, concentrated in Crimea and parts of the eastern and southern regions. Two short truces were declared during 2026, for Orthodox Easter in April and around Russia's 9 May commemorations, and both lapsed with each side accusing the other of continuing to fight; a narrow local ceasefire took effect on 5 September 2026 only to let engineers repair power lines to the occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. The Institute for the Study of War, in its assessment of 12 September 2026, reports fighting continuing on multiple fronts and judges that Ukrainian forces have contested the initiative at the strategic and operational level since late 2025. This is a fast moving situation, and any account of it is a snapshot rather than a conclusion.
Quick facts
- Russian gas transit through Ukraine to Europe ended on 1 January 2025, when the Gazprom to Naftogaz transit deal expired and Ukraine chose not to renew it.
- Ukraine was the world's largest producer and exporter of sunflower oil before the war, and a top global exporter of wheat and corn.
- The Black Sea Grain Initiative, in force from 22 July 2022 to 17 July 2023, moved nearly 33 million tonnes of food products before Russia let it lapse.
- Ukraine applied to join NATO in 2022; accession has not proceeded while the war continues.
- Russian forces control roughly 20% of Ukraine's territory, on the Council on Foreign Relations' tracker as updated on 1 September 2026, with no general ceasefire in effect.